Blame Canada: What the TIFF means for the 2013 Oscar Race

Toronto may or, indeed, may not be the city of Mounties, Bryan Adams, maple syrup and Greg Rusedski.

Irrespective of the correctitude of the above already equivocal assertion, Toronto is also – presumably by sheer serendipity – home of the Toronto International Film Festival or, if you’re cool like me, TIFF.

“Exactly how cool are you?” you may well rudely ask.  Well, let’s put it this way: I wear the face of my watch on the inside of my wrist and sprinkle cinnamon on my Starbucks latte…at the same time (sometimes).  That cool.

See, told you ‘TIFF’ was cool. It’s on an orange background, for cripes sake…

I’m also sufficiently cool to know that TIFF is the true starting pistol for the annual Oscars race.  Forget the false starts of Cannes and Venice, whose top prizes – respectively the Palme d’Or and the Golden Lion – have only once in 110 attempts gone to the eventual Best Picture winner (that being the Ernest Borgnine comedy Marty (1955, 4 wins, 8 noms) which won at Cannes).

To drag the athletics/Olympics/athletics at the Olympics analogy to its inevitably West Indian limit, the Usain Bolts of recent years that have gone on to break the Oscar finishing tape in first place are The King’s Speech (2010, 4 wins, 12 noms), Slumdog Millionaire (2008, 8 wins, 10 noms) and American Beauty (1999, 5 wins, 8 noms).  Chariots of Fire (1981, 4 wins, 7 noms) fittingly completes the golden quartet over the course of the last 34 awards.

Perhaps more interestingly (if you can imagine such a thing) is the fact that of the 20 TIFF winners that are English-language cinematic non-documentaries, 20% of the time they have gone on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.  This is a pretty good strike rate, considering that the Oscars ceremony is still five months away, particularly when compared to the lousy 1.6% and 0% conversion figures of Cannes and Venice respectively.

Throw in the likes of Precious (2009, 2 wins, 6 noms), Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000, 4 wins, 10 noms and former BTV Film of the Week), Life is Beautiful (1997, 3 wins, 7 noms), Shine (1996, 1 win, 7 noms), Places in the Heart (1984, 2 wins, 7 noms) and The Big Chill (1983, 0 wins, 3 noms) and of all Toronto’s cinematic non-documentary winners, a third earn nominations for the big one.  Bear in mind that in the vast majority of those contests, the category only allowed five nominees instead of the new system allowing up to ten, and Toronto’s victor now probably has roughly an even chance* of being nominated.

[* Note that this reasoning has been scientifically proven using the empirical measurement known as the ‘Hunch’]

So what does this mean for this year’s TIFF People’s Choice winner Silver Linings Playbook?  I should imagine that it means that director David O. Russell and star Bradley Cooper are permitting themselves broad, somewhat smug, grins…

Cooper could almost see the $ signs as Russell described the concept for his Stuck on You sequel (Credit: Chris Opalla (but only for the photo…the joke was all mine))

It also means that it becomes an immediate front-runner for inclusion in the final showdown in February.  David O. Russell’s name will be fresh in the hazy memory of the even the eldest of Academy members; a couple of years ago his The Fighter (2010, 2 wins, 7 noms) picked up two Oscars (a pair of supporting actor gongs (a.k.a. a “brassiere”?) for Christian Bale and Melissa Leo) and a further five nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director.

Throw in the hottest thing in Hollywood , Jennifer Lawrence, who herself picked up a nomination two years ago for Winter’s Bone (2010, 0 wins, 4 noms), Jacki Weaver, who lost out to Melissa Leo two years ago, and Robert De Niro, and Silver Linings Playbook – whose plot revolves around two people with ‘problems’ who seek solace in each other’s weirdness – has a great chance of filling the ‘quirky-yet-philisophical’ comedy nomination that the likes of Jason Reitman and Alexander Payne have thrived on over the last few years.

The film is released in the U.K. on 21st November and, until then we’ll have to make do with the rather annoying trailer (below).  But don’t let that put you off; The Kids Are All Right had an annoying trailer too and that turned out to be a brilli…actually, on second thoughts, forget that train of thought.

Name that Tune: Oscar’s 5 Surprisingest ‘Best Original Song’ Nominees

Mancini, McCartney, Barry, Bacharach, Rodgers & Hammerstein, Bernstein, Berlin, Gershwin (George and Ira), Streisand, Parton, Rice, Lloyd Webber, Hayes, Hamlisch, Springsteen, Sondheim, Collins, John, Richie, Wonder, Young, Newman and…Bon Jovi.

A multitude of 20th Century music’s most recognisable and revered names (those ones above; they’re the ones I’m talking about) have picked up dozens of Oscar wins and even dozenser of Oscar nominations over the years.

Elton John and Tim Rice have 4 wins, 8 nominations and 7 hair transplants between them. Tim Rice has had 0 hair transplants.

After the embarrassment of only two suitable nominees at this year’s ceremony, Oscar has put his fictional foot down and called in the big changes.  The analysis goes like this (and I know that it’s accreate because I’ve copied it directly from the BBC website):

“Academy members will receive the submitted works and a DVD of song clips. After watching the clips, members will vote in order of preference for up to five choices.

However, if there are fewer than 25 songs on the longlist, the final category will be limited to three nominees and if there are only nine songs on the longlist, it is possible that no award will be given at all for that year.”

It will be interesting to see if this helps to raise the standard of song back from, the frankly forgettable, winners from the last few years to the glory days of the 80s winners (‘Take My Breath Away’, ‘(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life’, ‘What a Feeling’, et al).

As well as the musical legends (and Bon Jovi) above, the Academy has also chosen some more unlikely nominees in the last few years.  Here are one less one than half a dozen of them:

1. Trey Parker

Talk to any…whataretheycalledagain…that’s right, girls, and they will tell you that South Park is a childish cartoon series with rubbish animation filled with fart jokes and unnecessary cursing.

Well these so-called ‘girls’ are about a million country miles away from the truth, because South Park is actually a childish cartoon series with rubbish animation filled with fart jokes and unnecessary cursing and is among the most consistently funny satirical comedy shows over the last 10 years.

Perpetually lampooning celebrities, politicians, major international religions and, generally, Mel Gibson, the cartoon provides some of the most incisive and cutting criticism of any television programs on either side of the Atlantic today.

At the height of its popularity in 1999, South Park creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker released South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut.  Not high on subtlety, the thrust of the story revolves around a love affair between Saddam Hussein and Satan.

As is typical of the television series, the film allowed Trey Parker demonstrate his expert art for musical parody, with songs such as “Kyle’s Mom’s a Bitch“, “Uncle Fucka” and the Oscar nominated “Blame Canada“, which was performed live at the ceremony by Robin Williams.

2. Eminem

I like Eminem, ok.  I just do.  And I love 8 Mile (as previously featured on my weekly Oscar television guide: ‘BTV‘).

So if you honour young Marshall at the Oscars for 8 Mile then you’re going to put a smile on this easily impressed little urchin’s face.

To recognise a rap song was a surprisingly bold step for the Academy to take, but “Lose Yourself” does exactly what a Best Original Song winner should do, by evoking the spirit, mood and artistic direction of the film (as well as citing vomiting up mom’s spaghetti which, to my tiny mind, should also be a prerequisite).

3. Three 6 Mafia

Following 8 Mile – like a Chevy-full of gangbangers mercilessly pursuing a jive sucker – only three years later another hip-hop outfit obtained the gold statue.

The understandably little known Three 6 Mafia wrote “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” for the criminally little watched Hustle & Flow in 2005, in which Terrence Howard (who was also nominated for his male lead) plays down-on-his-luck rapper Djay, trying to make it to the big time from his home made studio.

Their performance at the Oscars ceremony was, as I’m sure some elderly member of my family would label it, lively:

But it was great to see one of the film’s stars (and future Oscar nominee for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) Taraji P. Henson join in on the fun, and it gave rise to one of my favourite ever Oscar ad libs from underrated host Jon Stewart who observed, after T6M received their prizes, that it just got easier out here for a pimp.

4. Dido

Who could possibly be a better choice of pop star to vocalise the pain, desperation and gut wrenching (or, indeed, arm wrenching) tension of James Franco’s rather sticky predicament (i.e. he was stuck) in Danny Boyle’s 127 Hours than paint dried, dullier than thou, butter wouldn’t melt (because the butter was so bored), almost as bland as this blog, Dido?

I don’t know.  The Lighthouse Family?  Simply Red?  David Gray? Des’ree?  Enya?  (Ad infinitum citing all of the cds in my mother’s collection).

Still, at least none of them has ever received an Oscar nomination.

…

Wha-wha-whaaaaaaat?

5. Bret McKenzie

I’m not going to use this blog space to toady the brilliance of Flight of the Conchords (notwithstanding its unfortunate slump in the second series).

However, I think I’m entirely justified in decrying the Academy’s ludicrous decision not to requisition the Best Original Song nominees (for only the third time in Oscar history) to  perform their competing tunes at the ceremony.  For the first time in years, the Academy had the opportunity to showcase a genuinely original song, but Brit’s “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets was refused the chance.

To console yourself, watch Brit picking up his well-earned prize here.  OH MY GOD, isn’t he just soooooo adooooorable.

Enjoy

Bloscars