Cannes they do it…?

The Cannes Film Festival is an ideal opportunity to revel in absurdly early Academy Award predictions and and even absurdlier obvious puns. Turkish director Nuri Bilge Ceylan picked up the Palme d’Or for his epic Winter Sleep last night, but does that mean he should start getting fitted for his dinner jacket ready for next year’s Oscar night? And, if not, will any of those pathetic LOSERS also in competition this year fare better?

Tell you what, let’s look at statistics and history to decide (you know, as opposed to what I usually do…taking a wild guess).

Here’s a good one to start…no Turkish film has ever been nominated for a Best Foreign Language film in the twenty years it has submitted entries. Ceylan himself came closest six years ago when his Three Monkeys made it as far as the January shortlist, but a Hollywood nod this time around would make history. To put this in to context, countries as lowly as Nicaragua, Kazakhstan (not, before you ask, for Borat) and Wales have all previously garnered nominations – and I mean lowly in terms of their film-making reputation…of course.

Four of the previous ten Palme d’Or winners went on to pick up an Academy Award nomination. At roughly a 50/50 split (give or take ten or so percentiles) this appears to bode evenly for Ceylan. But three of those four winners were helmed by Michael Haneke (for The White Ribbon and Amour) and  Terrence Malick (for The Tree of Life) – two directors that have transcended Cannes – and so this rather skews the form book out of the Turk’s favour.

On average (I’ve chosen ‘mean’), less than three films in competition over the last five years have gone on to be recognised at the Oscars. Considering there were eighteen in the frame yesterday, this again makes Ceylan statistically unlikely to get invited to the big show next February.

But if not Winter Sleep, then what? Here are the three I’d most expect to see rousing the Academy members to conciousness next winter…

 

Foxcatcher – The most talked about film at this year’s festival, Steve Carell is winning the plaudits for his ‘serious’ turn as a millionaire wrestling coach. But direcor Bennett Miller was nominated for ‘Capote’ (and passed over for ‘Moneyball’) and will likely feature again this time around.

Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh previous biopic ‘Topsy-Turvy’ is his most garlanded to date. His look at J. M. W. Turner should match it, and Timothy Spall’s central performance will be competing fiercely against Carell on Oscar night.

Two Days, One Night – “Two Palme d’Ors and no Os-cars” as the old chant goes. With the star quality of Marion Cotillard in the lead role, the Dardennes Brothers should finally get their long awaited Foreign Language nomination.